India likely to see 2nd Covid wave peak by May 7, says Experts

By Administrator_ India

Capital Sands

By May 7, India could see the peak of the second wave of coronavirus cases, suggested Experts, the government’s mathematical modeling expert on Covid-19 case predictions.

If the predictions hold true, it would be a huge relief for the country to cross the national peak of the second wave by this weekend.

“We take the seven-day rolling average because the daily numbers keep fluctuating. As a result, we should not just look at the raw numbers but also at a daily moving average. That number will begin to decline by the end of the present week,” Experts said.

“The second wave basically started in Maharashtra. States that are located far away from Maharashtra will see a slow peak and the decline will be slower. States that are closer to Maharashtra will attain their peaks soon and their graph will start declining sooner,” he said.

Experts said if one compares curves of the first and second wave, one would find that in the first wave the rise in cases was very gentle.

“It took about 3.5 months to reach the peak and the drop was equally gentle. In the second wave, on April 1 we had 75,000 cases and exactly a month later, we breached the 4-lakh mark. We expect that the decline will be more or less as rapid as the rise was. The nationwide caseload by the end of May should be something around 1.2 lakh per day.”

Prof Gautam Menon, Prof of Biology at Ashoka University, on the other hand, anticipates the peak will come towards the second week of May or around mid-May.

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